Market Insights: Ganesh Dongre's Top Stock Picks for Monday

The Indian stock market is abuzz with activity as it navigates through significant fluctuations. This week, the Nifty index exhibited an impressive rally, climbing nearly 1,000 points from 22,700 to 23,700. The primary catalyst behind this remarkable uptrend? The recent Union Budget 2025, which aims to boost consumption in the economy.

Union Budget and Its Impact

The newly unveiled budget came with several favorable provisions for middle-income salaried individuals, leading to an increase in disposable income. Consequently, consumption-related stocks such as Trent, D-Mart, and Zomato have witnessed heightened interest from investors. This favorable sentiment has significantly contributed to market optimism.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, attention should be given to key levels: 23,600 and 24,200, with the 200-day moving average (DMA) positioned at 24,100. Currently, the Nifty is still trading within a falling channel pattern originating from September 2024, with critical resistance set at 23,700. For sustained investor confidence, a weekly and monthly close above this level is essential.

The week started with a gap-down opening below 23,000; however, a swift recovery occurred due to short-covering ahead of the monthly expiry and the impending budget announcement. As the Nifty tested resistance at 23,300 and 23,600, it formed a daily higher-low pattern.

Looking forward, if the Nifty can surpass the 23,700 mark, it could advance towards the 24,100-24,200 zone, coinciding with the 200 DMA and prior month’s high. On the flip side, a close below 23,300, with a daily lower-high pattern, may pull the index down to support levels ranging from 22,500 to 22,800. Traders are advised to maintain a cautious approach and closely monitor these critical resistance levels.

Bank Nifty Performance

The Bank Nifty Index kicked off the week on a robust footing, forming a weekly double-bottom pattern. This technical setup allowed the index to surpass its previous week’s high of 49,600, making a bid toward the significant resistance level of 50,500. Nevertheless, it struggled to maintain its position above this resistance zone.

On a weekly basis, the index has remained range-bound between 47,500 and 50,000. Yet, the formation of a consistent higher-low closing pattern suggests potential for further upward movement. Immediate support rests at 48,000, while the resistance for the upcoming week is pegged at 50,500.

Weekly Stocks to Buy

Based on the current market scenario, Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi has recommended three stocks to consider this Monday:

• Buy Trent at ₹6,190; Stop Loss at ₹5,800; Target Price of ₹6,500.
• Buy VBL at ₹562; Stop Loss at ₹535; Target Price of ₹595.
• Buy SBI at ₹766; Stop Loss at ₹745; Target Price of ₹790.

Conclusion

In summary, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty closed below their respective monthly resistance zones. The key levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty are 24,250 and 50,500, respectively, which are essential for triggering fresh long positions. Investors and traders should exercise caution and closely observe these pivotal levels as indicators for future market direction.

For more insights on stock recommendations and financial analysis, visit LiveMint.